THE WORLD AND SOUTH AFRICA BEYOND 2023: THE LATEST FLAGS, SCENARIOS AND PROBABILITIES
Clem Sunter, futurist
Monday 16 January
1.00 pm
COURSE FEES R110
This lecture will discuss the latest status of the following global flags: the red flag of Russia, China and North Korea and their relationship to the West; the green flag of climate change and the increase in frequency of extreme weather events; the inequity flag and how the rising cost of living is causing economic woes for the middle and working classes around the world and increasing the wealth and income gap between the rich and the poor; the national debt flag and how higher interest rates could cause defaults on loans not only extended to governments but also to companies and individuals; the crowded space flag and rising odds of a collision between satellites in space; and the technology flag whereby new technologies can come out of the blue to improve the fortunes of humankind in the long-run.
The lecture will then cover the two scenarios for the world economy in and beyond 2023, the first one being ‘friendly planet’ where increasing co-operation between nations leads to swifter recovery than anticipated from the Covid-19 pandemic; and the second one being ‘gilded cage’ where the West becomes increasingly isolated from the rest of the world and international divisions multiply. Against the global backdrop there will be an up-to-date assessment of the two South African scenarios covered in the recently published book, Thinking the Future, the positive one being ‘people’s economy’ of a new generation of local entrepreneurs transforming the country’s prospects for the good; and the negative one being ‘cautionary tale’, where growing disunity and violence could end up in a situation of total anarchy.